Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
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RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 16/12/20062007 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 12 (INDLALA) 2.A POSITION 2007/03/14 AT 1200 UTC : 14.5S / 51.5E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY ONE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.5/5.5 MOINS /D 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 940 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 90 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 250 SE: 400 SO: 450 NO: 250 50 KT NE: 080 SE: 080 SO: 080 NO: 080 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/03/15 00 UTC: 15.2S/50.6E, MAX WIND=095KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 24H: 2007/03/15 12 UTC: 16.1S/49.8E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2007/03/16 00 UTC: 16.7S/49.3E, MAX WIND=055KT, OVERLAND. 48H: 2007/03/16 12 UTC: 17.3S/48.9E, MAX WIND=035KT, OVERLAND. 60H: 2007/03/17 00 UTC: 17.8S/48.6E, MAX WIND=025KT, OVERLAND. 72H: 2007/03/17 12 UTC: 18.3S/48.5E, MAX WIND=020KT, OVERLAND. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=5.5. THE SYSTEM "INDLALA" KEEPS ON INTENSIFYING. THE 25NM DIAMETER EYE IS WELL DEFINED AND MORE AND MORE "WARM", AND DEEP CONVECTION IS CONCENTRATING AROUND THE CENTER. "INDLALA" KEEP ON TRACKING SOUTHWEST TO WESTSOUTHWESTWARDS, TOWARDS MASOALA PENINSULA WICH IT COULD REACH DURING NEXT NIGHT. THE INTENSIFICATION SHOULD CONTINUE, IN FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT (IN LOW AND HIGH LEVELS), OVER SST AT MORE THAN 27°C, APPROACHING MALAGASY COASTS. NUMERICAL WEATHER MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT MEDIUM RANGE. THE RSMC FORECAST IS A CONSENSUS.