Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 17/12/20062007 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 12 (INDLALA) 2.A POSITION 2007/03/14 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.8S / 51.0E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY ONE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.5/5.5 /D 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 935 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 95 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 250 SE: 330 SO: 250 NO: 250 50 KT NE: 090 SE: 090 SO: 090 NO: 090 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/03/15 06 UTC: 15.4S/50.3E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 24H: 2007/03/15 18 UTC: 15.9S/49.8E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2007/03/16 06 UTC: 16.5S/49.4E, MAX WIND=060KT, OVERLAND. 48H: 2007/03/16 18 UTC: 17.2S/48.9E, MAX WIND=040KT, OVERLAND. 60H: 2007/03/17 06 UTC: 17.7S/48.4E, MAX WIND=040KT, OVERLAND. 72H: 2007/03/17 18 UTC: 18.1S/47.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, OVERLAND. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=5.5+ TAKING BENEFIT OF A FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT, "INDLALA" INTENSIFIED GRADUALLY DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS. A 20 NM DIAMETER EYE IS NOW CONSOLIDATED, BUT BOTH INFRA-RED AND MICRO-WAVE IMAGERY REVEAL A MORE COMPLEX STRUCTURE WITH A SECONDARY CLOSED CONVECTIVE WALL (120 NM DIAMETER), SIGNING A INTENSIFYING SYSTEM ; THESE CONVECTIVE BANDS CURRENTLY REACH THE MALGASY COASTLINE AND THE INTERACTION WITH LAND SHALL STOP THE INTENSIFICATION PHASE. "INDLALA" KEEPS ON TRACKING MAINLY SOUTHWESTWARDS, TOWARDS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE "INDLALA" IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER MASOALA PENINSULA, IN THE VICINITY OF ANTALAHA, WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. A SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING OF "INDLALA" IS FORSEEN ONLY AFTER 24 TO 36 HOURS, ONCE THE CYCLONE HAS GOT ACROSS ANTONGIL BAY.