Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 19/12/20062007 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 12 (INDLALA) 2.A POSITION 2007/03/15 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.0S / 50.2E (FIFTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.0/5.5 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 940 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 90 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 250 SE: 330 SO: 250 NO: 200 50 KT NE: 090 SE: 090 SO: 090 NO: 050 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/03/15 18 UTC: 15.4S/49.6E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2007/03/16 06 UTC: 16.1S/48.7E, MAX WIND=040KT, OVERLAND. 36H: 2007/03/16 18 UTC: 16.9S/47.9E, MAX WIND=025KT, OVERLAND. 48H: 2007/03/17 06 UTC: 17.8S/46.9E DISSIPATING. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=5.0- ; CI=5.5 THE INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE "INDLALA" IS CURRENTLY MAKING LANDFALL OVER MASOALA PENINSULA, IN THE VICINITY OF ANTALAHA AFTER BUCKLING NORTHWARDS WITHIN THE ENDING NIGHT. ANYWAY, HEAVY RAINFALL AND VERY STRONG WINDS SHALL KEEP ON OVER NORTHERN MADAGASCAR. A SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING OF "INDLALA" IS FORSEEN WITHIN 12 TO 18 HOURS AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD DISSIPATE BEYOND 48 HOURS.