Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 21/12/20062007 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 12 (INDLALA) 2.A POSITION 2007/03/15 AT 1800 UTC : 15.9S / 49.4E (FIFTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY NINE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : / 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 975 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 60 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 150 SE: 200 SO: 150 NO: 120 50 KT NE: 070 SE: 070 SO: 040 NO: 040 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/03/16 06 UTC: 16.7S/48.2E, MAX WIND=050KT, OVERLAND. 24H: 2007/03/16 18 UTC: 17.4S/46.9E, MAX WIND=040KT, OVERLAND. 36H: 2007/03/17 06 UTC: 19.1S/46.3E, MAX WIND=030KT, OVERLAND. 48H: 2007/03/17 18 UTC: 21.1S/46.8E, MAX WIND=025KT, OVERLAND. 60H: 2007/03/18 06 UTC: 23.2S/48.4E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 72H: 2007/03/18 18 UTC: 25.8S/50.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM IS HUGING THE COAST OF ANTONGIL BAY, STILL HAVING STORM FORCE WINDS AND DESTRUCTIVES WAVES (RESULTING OF ADDITIONNAL EFFECTS OF CYCLONIC SWELL AND STORM SURGE). VERY HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURE OVER ALL THE NORTH OF MADAGASCAR. INDLALA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY OVERLAND, TRACKING GLOBALLY SOUTHWESTWARDS. THEN, IF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS NOT TOTALLY DISSIPATED, THE RESIDUAL VORTEX COULD COME BACK OVER SEAS IN THE SOUTHEAST OF MALAGASY WITHIN THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS.