Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 22/12/20062007 1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 12 (EX-INDLALA) 2.A POSITION 2007/03/16 AT 0000 UTC : 16.3S / 48.5E (SIXTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY EIGHT DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : / 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 150 SE: 200 SO: 150 NO: 150 50 KT NE: 040 SE: 040 SO: 040 NO: 040 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/03/16 12 UTC: 16.7S/47.3E OVERLAND. 24H: 2007/03/17 00 UTC: 17.7S/46.3E OVERLAND. 36H: 2007/03/17 12 UTC: 19.3S/46.2E OVERLAND. 48H: 2007/03/18 00 UTC: 21.4S/47.2E OVERLAND. 60H: 2007/03/18 12 UTC: 23.1S/49.2E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: INDLALA IS RAPIDLY WEAKENING OVERLAND. OVER LAND, IT STILL GENERATES STORM FORCE WINDS NEAR THE CENTER, WITH GUSTS LOCALLY REACHING 150 KM/H, WILL OVERSEAS NEAR COASTLINES, MAX WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 40KT (70KM/H), WITH GUSTS AT 55KT (AROUND 100 KM/H). VERY HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURE OVER ALL THE NORTH OF MADAGASCAR. INDLALA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY OVERLAND DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THEN, IF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS NOT TOTALLY DISSIPATED, THE RESIDUAL VORTEX COULD COME BACK OVER SEAS IN THE SOUTHEAST OF MALAGASY WITHIN THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS, WITHOUT RE-INTENSIFY SIGNIFICANTLY (STRONG VERTICAL WINDSHEAR).