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Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00 Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48 Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

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RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 24/12/20062007
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 12 (EX-INDLALA)

2.A POSITION 2007/03/16 AT 1200 UTC :
16.6S / 47.1E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY SEVEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : /
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE :
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) :

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2007/03/17 00 UTC: 18.7S/46.6E OVERLAND.
24H: 2007/03/17 12 UTC: 20.8S/47.0E OVERLAND.
36H: 2007/03/18 00 UTC: 23.0S/47.6E OVERLAND.
48H: 2007/03/18 12 UTC: 26.1S/48.8E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
60H: 2007/03/19 00 UTC: 30.3S/50.7E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
72H: 2007/03/19 12 UTC: 35.0S/51.5E BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
INDLALA IS RAPIDLY WEAKENING OVERLAND.
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURE OVER ALL THE NORTH OF MADAGASCAR NORTH TO 20S.
INDLALA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY OVERLAND DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
THEN, IF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS NOT TOTALLY DISSIPATED, THE RESIDUAL VORTEX COULD COME BACK OVER SEAS IN THE SOUTHEAST OF MALAGASY WITHIN THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS, WITHOUT RE-INTENSIFY SIGNIFICANTLY (STRONG VERTICAL WINDSHEAR), THEN EVACUATE INTO THE TROUGH.