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RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 25/12/20062007
1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 12 (EX-INDLALA)

2.A POSITION 2007/03/16 AT 1800 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.0S / 47.3E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY SEVEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : /
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 995 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2007/03/17 06 UTC: 19.2S/47.2E OVERLAND.
24H: 2007/03/17 18 UTC: 21.9S/47.7E OVERLAND.
36H: 2007/03/18 06 UTC: 24.6S/48.4E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
48H: 2007/03/18 18 UTC: 27.9S/49.9E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
60H: 2007/03/19 06 UTC: 32.6S/51.3E, MAX WIND=030KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL.
72H: 2007/03/19 18 UTC: 38.0S/51.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, EXTRATROPICAL.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
LLCC HAS BEEN RELOCATED LIGHTLY EASTWARDS.
MSLP HAS BEEN CALIBRATED THANKS TO MAEVATANANA METEOROLOGICAL STATION (997.5 HPA AT 1500UTC)
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURE OVER ALL THE NORTH OF MADAGASCAR NORTH TO 20S.
STRONGEST WINDS COULD LOCALLY REACH AGAIN 30/35KT (10MN AVERAGE WINDS) WITH GUSTS TO 40/45KT MAINLY IN THE EASTERN SECTOR IN THE PROVINCE OF TOAMASINA.
INDLALA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY OVERLAND DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THEN, IF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS NOT TOTALLY DISSIPATED, THE RESIDUAL VORTEX COULD COME BACK OVER SEAS IN THE SOUTHEAST OF MALAGASY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS, WITHOUT RE-INTENSIFY SIGNIFICANTLY (STRONG VERTICAL WINDSHEAR), THEN EVACUATE INTO THE TROUGH.