Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 26/12/20062007 1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 12 (EX-INDLALA) 2.A POSITION 2007/03/17 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.5S / 47.5E (SEVENTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY SEVEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : / 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/03/17 12 UTC: 19.0S/47.8E OVERLAND. 24H: 2007/03/18 00 UTC: 20.6S/48.0E OVERLAND. 36H: 2007/03/18 12 UTC: 22.8S/49.4E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 48H: 2007/03/19 00 UTC: 25.3S/50.1E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 60H: 2007/03/19 12 UTC: 27.1S/50.0E BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 72H: 2007/03/20 00 UTC: 29.9S/50.0E BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: CIRCULATION CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO MONITOR ON THE CENTRAL MALAGASY HIGH SHELF AND IS IN CONSEQUANCE VERY APPROXIMATELY LOCATED. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURE OVER ALL THE NORTH OF MADAGASCAR NORTH TO 20S, AND MAINLY IN MAHAJONGA'S AREA AT THE PRESENT TIME. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS STRENGTHEN IN THE NORTHERN MOZAMBICAN CHANNEL AND ALONG THE EASTERN MALAGASY COASTLINE. INDLALA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY OVERLAND DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THEN, IF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS NOT TOTALLY DISSIPATED, THE RESIDUAL VORTEX COULD COME BACK OVER SEAS IN THE SOUTHEAST OF MALAGASY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS, WITHOUT RE-INTENSIFY SIGNIFICANTLY (STRONG VERTICAL WINDSHEAR), THEN EVACUATE INTO THE TROUGH.