Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 1/13/20062007 1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 13 2.A POSITION 2007/03/13 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 50 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.6S / 77.0E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/1.5 /D 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1005 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 20 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/03/14 00 UTC: 14.9S/76.7E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2007/03/14 12 UTC: 15.3S/76.5E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2007/03/15 00 UTC: 15.7S/76.3E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2007/03/15 12 UTC: 16.3S/76.1E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2007/03/16 00 UTC: 17.1S/76.1E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2007/03/16 12 UTC: 17.9S/75.8E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS AN IMPROVING LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION ; THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY REMAINS FLUCTUATING. THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVOURABLE : 28/29 DEG SST, WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND A POTENTIAL GOOD OUTFLOW UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. AT THIS STAGE, THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.