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Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00 Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48 Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

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*************** CORRECTIVE **************
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 2/13/20062007
1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 13

2.A POSITION 2007/03/14 AT 0000 UTC :
WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.0S / 77.0E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/1.5 /D 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1003 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 20 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2007/03/14 12 UTC: 17.3S/76.2E, MAX WIND=025KT , TROP. DISTURBANCE.
24H: 2007/03/15 00 UTC: 17.8S/75.7E, MAX WIND=030KT , TROP. DEPRESSION.
36H: 2007/03/15 12 UTC: 18.3S/75.3E, MAX WIND=035KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM.
48H: 2007/03/16 00 UTC: 18.9S/75.3E, MAX WIND=040KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM.
60H: 2007/03/16 12 UTC: 19.4S/75.2E, MAX WIND=040KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM.
72H: 2007/03/17 00 UTC: 20.0S/75.0E, MAX WIND=040KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=1.5+
THE ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS AN IMPROVING LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION ; THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY REMAINS FLUCTUATING. THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVOURABLE : 28/29 DEG SST, WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND A POTENTIAL GOOD OUTFLOW UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.

AT THIS STAGE, THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.