Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 3/13/20062007 1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 13 2.A POSITION 2007/03/14 AT 1200 UTC : 16.3S / 75.4E (SIXTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY FIVE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/1.5 /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1003 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/03/15 00 UTC: 17.1S/74.9E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2007/03/15 12 UTC: 17.9S/74.4E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2007/03/16 00 UTC: 18.4S/74.1E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 48H: 2007/03/16 12 UTC: 18.9S/73.8E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2007/03/17 00 UTC: 19.3S/73.5E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2007/03/17 12 UTC: 19.7S/73.2E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=1.5+ LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION IS STILL ELONGATED AND POORLY ORGANIZED AROUND AN EXPOSED LLCC ; THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY REMAINS FLUCTUATING AND SCATTERED. THE ENVIRONMENT IS NEUTRAL TO FAVOURABLE : 28/29 DEG SST, WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND A GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. LOWL EVEL INFLOWS SHOULD IMPROVE BEYOND THE NEXT 48 HOURS, WHAT SHOULD INDUCE A MORE SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION. NUMERICAL WEATHER MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THEIR FORECASTS OF TRACK AND INTENSITY, SOME MAKING IT TRACK GLOBALLY WESTWARDS, OTHER SOUTHWESTWARDS TO SOUTHWARDS. THE RSMC FORECAST IS A CONSENSUS. AT THIS STAGE, THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.