Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 4/13/20062007 1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 13 2.A POSITION 2007/03/15 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.5S / 75.8E (SIXTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY FIVE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/1.5 /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1003 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 20 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/03/15 12 UTC: 17.0S/75.5E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2007/03/16 00 UTC: 17.6S/75.4E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2007/03/16 12 UTC: 18.2S/75.2E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2007/03/17 00 UTC: 18.8S/75.1E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2007/03/17 12 UTC: 19.2S/74.8E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2007/03/18 00 UTC: 19.4S/74.4E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=1.5+ ACCORDING TO THE LATEST MICRO-WAVE IMAGERY (NOAA18 2012Z), THE LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION IS STILL EXPOSED AND POORLY ORGANIZED. A WEAK TO MODERATE WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHIFTS THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THIS AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONSOLIDATE AND TO INTENSIFY GRADUALLY AFTER 24 HOURS, AS THE LOWER LAYER INFLOW IMPROVES. THE NUMERICAL WEATHER MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT (BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY), FEW OF THEM TRACK THE SYSTEM MAINLY WESTWARDS, OTHERS SOUTHWESTWARDS TO SOUTHWARDS. THE RSMC FORECAST IS A CONSENSUS. AT THIS STAGE, THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.