Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
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RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/13/20062007 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 13 2.A POSITION 2007/03/15 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.2S / 76.0E (SEVENTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SIX DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /D 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1001 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/03/15 18 UTC: 18.3S/75.7E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2007/03/16 06 UTC: 19.5S/75.4E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2007/03/16 18 UTC: 20.7S/75.0E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2007/03/17 06 UTC: 20.7S/73.9E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2007/03/17 18 UTC: 20.1S/73.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2007/03/18 06 UTC: 20.8S/72.6E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.0 THE LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION IS STILL EXPOSED BUT ORGANIZATION SEEMS TO IMPROVE ACCORDING TO LAST NIGHT QUIKSCAT SWAT. THIS TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO CONSOLIDATE AND TO INTENSIFY GRADUALLY AFTER 24 HOURS, AS THE LOWER LAYER INFLOW IMPROVES. THE NUMERICAL WEATHER MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT (BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY), FEW OF THEM TRACK THE SYSTEM MAINLY WESTWARDS, OTHERS SOUTHWESTWARDS TO SOUTHWARDS. THE RSMC FORECAST IS A CONSENSUS. AT THIS STAGE, THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.