Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 6/13/20062007 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 13 2.A POSITION 2007/03/15 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.8S / 76.3E (SEVENTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SIX DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /D 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1001 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/03/16 00 UTC: 18.8S/76.6E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2007/03/16 12 UTC: 19.2S/76.7E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2007/03/17 00 UTC: 19.7S/76.7E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 48H: 2007/03/17 12 UTC: 20.3S/76.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 60H: 2007/03/18 00 UTC: 20.4S/75.5E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 72H: 2007/03/18 12 UTC: 20.5S/75.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.0 THE LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION REMAINS TOTALLY EXPOSED NORTH-WEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO WEAK, SO ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVOURABLE FOR A SIGNIFICATIVE INTENSIFICATION FOR THIS SYSTEM AND ARE NOT FORSEEN TO IMPROVE WITHIN THE NEXT 72 HOURS. THE NUMERICAL WEATHER MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT (BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY), FEW OF THEM TRACK THE SYSTEM MAINLY WESTWARDS, OTHERS SOUTHWESTWARDS TO SOUTHWARDS. THE RSMC FORECAST IS A CONSENSUS. AT THIS STAGE, THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.