Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 7/13/20062007 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 13 2.A POSITION 2007/03/16 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.2S / 76.3E (NINETEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SIX DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 MOINS /D 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1000 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/03/16 12 UTC: 19.8S/76.3E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2007/03/17 00 UTC: 20.6S/76.3E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2007/03/17 12 UTC: 21.1S/75.9E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 48H: 2007/03/18 00 UTC: 21.4S/75.4E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 60H: 2007/03/18 12 UTC: 21.6S/75.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 72H: 2007/03/19 00 UTC: 21.8S/74.6E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.0 THE LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED NORTH-WEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION, DUE TO IMPORTANT NORTHWESTERLY VERTIOCAL WINDHEAR. VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO WEAK, SO ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVOURABLE FOR A SIGNIFICATIVE INTENSIFICATION FOR THIS SYSTEM AND ARE NOT FORSEEN TO IMPROVE WITHIN THE NEXT 72 HOURS. THE NUMERICAL WEATHER MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT (BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY). THE RSMC FORECAST IS A CONSENSUS, MAKING IT TRACK SOUTHWARDS BEFORE CURVE AND SLOW DOWN SOUTHWESTWARDS DUE TO THE REBUILDING SUBTROPICAL HIGH. AT THIS STAGE, THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.