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Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00 Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48 Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

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RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 8/13/20062007
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 13

2.A POSITION 2007/03/16 AT 0600 UTC :
18.6S / 75.3E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY FIVE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /W
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1001 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2007/03/16 18 UTC: 18.3S/74.4E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
24H: 2007/03/17 06 UTC: 17.9S/73.1E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
36H: 2007/03/17 18 UTC: 17.8S/71.3E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
48H: 2007/03/18 06 UTC: 17.7S/69.5E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
60H: 2007/03/18 18 UTC: 17.7S/67.5E FILLING UP.
72H: 2007/03/19 06 UTC: 17.7S/65.5E FILLING UP.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
THE LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED NORTH-WEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION, DUE TO IMPORTANT NORTHWESTERLY VERTIOCAL WINDHEAR.
VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO WEAK, SO ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVOURABLE FOR A SIGNIFICATIVE INTENSIFICATION FOR THIS SYSTEM AND ARE NOT FORSEEN TO IMPROVE WITHIN THE NEXT 72 HOURS.
NUMERICAL WEATHER MODELS DONOT ANALYSE WELL THIS SYSTEM OF WEAK INTENSITY.
AT THIS STAGE,

AT THIS STAGE, THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.