Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 9/13/20062007 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 13 2.A POSITION 2007/03/16 AT 1200 UTC : 18.2S / 74.7E (EIGHTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY FOUR DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /W 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1001 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1100 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/03/17 00 UTC: 18.0S/73.6E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2007/03/17 12 UTC: 17.8S/71.5E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 36H: 2007/03/18 00 UTC: 17.7S/69.3E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 48H: 2007/03/18 12 UTC: 17.6S/67.0E DISSIPATING. 60H: 2007/03/19 00 UTC: 18.0S/65.0E DISSIPATING. 72H: 2007/03/19 12 UTC: 19.0S/63.7E DISSIPATING. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.0-. THE LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED WEST OF THE RESIDUAL CONVECTION, DUE TO IMPORTANT WESTERLY VERTICAL WINDHEAR. VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO WEAK, SO ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVOURABLE FOR A SIGNIFICATIVE INTENSIFICATION FOR THIS SYSTEM AND ARE NOT FORSEEN TO IMPROVE WITHIN THE NEXT 72 HOURS. NUMERICAL WEATHER MODELS DONOT ANALYSE WELL THIS SYSTEM OF WEAK INTENSITY. AT THIS STAGE, AT THIS STAGE, THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.