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Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00 Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48 Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

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RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 11/13/20062007
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 13

2.A POSITION 2007/03/17 AT 0600 UTC :
16.7S / 74.0E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY FOUR DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/1.5 /W 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1003 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 20 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2007/03/17 18 UTC: 15.6S/74.3E, MAX WIND=020KT, FILLING UP.
24H: 2007/03/18 06 UTC: 15.9S/74.8E, MAX WIND=015KT, DISSIPATING.
36H: 2007/03/18 18 UTC: 16.5S/73.5E DISSIPATED.


2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
THE LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION IS POORLY DEFINED AND FULLY EXPOSED WEST OF THE RESIDUAL CONVECTION, WHICH IS SOUTHEASTWARDS AWAY FROM THE CENTRE DUE TO STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDSHEAR.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVOURABLE FOR A SIGNIFICATIVE INTENSIFICATION OF THIS SYSTEM.
NUMERICAL WEATHER MODELS DO NOT PROPERLY ANALYZE THIS WEAK SYSTEM.

LAST WARNING RELATED TO THIS SYSTEM, UNLESS REINTENSIFICATION.