Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

*************** CORRECTIVE ************** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 1/14/20062007 1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 14 2.A POSITION 2007/03/29 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.9S / 69.0E (TWELVE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY NINE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/1.5 /D 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1004 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 20 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/03/30 00 UTC: 13.3S/67.8E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2007/03/30 12 UTC: 13.5S/66.6E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2007/03/31 00 UTC: 14.1S/65.2E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2007/03/31 12 UTC: 14.6S/63.4E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2007/04/01 00 UTC: 14.7S/61.6E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2007/04/01 12 UTC: 15.1S/59.4E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T AND CI=1.5+ UNDERGOING A NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR CONSTRAINT , THE LLCC IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED NORTHEASTWARD OF THE MAIN DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. A POLAR TROUGH IS SHIPPING SOUTH OF THIS SYSTEM , SO LOW LAYER POLEWARD INFLOW IS NOT FAVOURABLE FOR A QUICK INTENSIFICATION. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING GLOBALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORSEEN TO IMPROVE, WITH A CLEARLY WEAKENING VERTICAL WINDSHEAR WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS BUT INTENSIFICATION SHOULD PROBABLY BEGIN ONLY ON SATURDAY LINKED TO THE IMPROVING LOW LEVEL POLEWARD INFLOW IN RELATIONSHIP WITH THE REBUILDING SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES BELT. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECASTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING OVER THE NORTH OF MASCARENES (NEAR 15S) AND SHOULD ONLY HAVE A MARGINAL INFLUENCE BY INFORCED TRADE WINDS FLOW (OVER RODRIGUES ON THE 03/31, OVER MAURITIUS AND LA REUNION, ON THE 01 AND THE 04/02). AT THIS STAGE, THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.