Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 2/14/20062007 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14 2.A POSITION 2007/03/30 AT 0600 UTC : 13.4S / 66.9E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SIX DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 999 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 28 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/03/30 18 UTC: 14.0S/65.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2007/03/31 06 UTC: 14.2S/63.3E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2007/03/31 18 UTC: 14.3S/61.2E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2007/04/01 06 UTC: 14.3S/59.2E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2007/04/01 18 UTC: 14.3S/57.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2007/04/02 06 UTC: 14.3S/54.5E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T AND CI=2.5-. THE NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR CONSTRAINT HAS WEAKENED LAST NIGTH, CONVECTION IS NOW BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE CENTER. SYSTEM IS FORECASTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY AS THE IMPROVING LOW LEVEL POLEWARD INFLOW IN RELATIONSHIP WITH THE REBUILDING SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES BELT. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GLOBALLY WESTWARDS, NORTH TO THE REBUILDING SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES BELT.