Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

*************** CORRECTIVE ************** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 3/14/20062007 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 14 (JAYA) 2.A POSITION 2007/03/30 AT 1200 UTC : 13.4S / 66.3E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SIX DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.0 /D 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 994 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 050 SE: 050 SO: 050 NO: 050 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/03/31 00 UTC: 13.4S/65.0E, MAX WIND=045KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2007/03/31 12 UTC: 13.7S/63.7E, MAX WIND=050KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2007/04/01 00 UTC: 14.0S/61.7E, MAX WIND=055KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2007/04/01 12 UTC: 14.2S/59.2E, MAX WIND=060KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2007/04/02 00 UTC: 14.4S/57.2E, MAX WIND=065KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2007/04/02 12 UTC: 14.5S/55.1E, MAX WIND=070KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE SYSTEM SHOWS NOW A BANDING CURVED PATTERN. IT IS A SMALL SIZE SYSTEM, AND THE ESTIMATED PRESSION IS HIGHER THAN FOR AVERAGE SIZE. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GLOBALLY WESTWARDS, NORTH TO THE REBUILDING SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES BELT. SYSTEM IS FORECASTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY WITH THE IMPROVING LOW LEVEL POLEWARD INFLOW IN RELATIONSHIP DUE TO THE REBUILDING SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES BELT AND THE IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW.