Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 4/14/20062007 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 14 (JAYA) 2.A POSITION 2007/03/30 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.6S / 65.7E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY FIVE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.5/3.5 /D 1.0/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 987 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 45 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 080 SE: 080 SO: 080 NO: 080 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/03/31 06 UTC: 13.7S/64.2E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2007/03/31 18 UTC: 14.0S/62.6E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2007/04/01 06 UTC: 14.4S/60.4E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2007/04/01 18 UTC: 14.9S/58.0E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2007/04/02 06 UTC: 14.9S/55.5E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2007/04/02 18 UTC: 13.9S/53.2E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T AND CI=3.5- IT IS A SMALL SIZE SYSTEM SHOWING A BANDING CURVED PATTERN. SYSTEM KEEPS ON TRACKING GLOBALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS, ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE REBUILDING SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES BELT. SYSTEM IS FORSEEN TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY WITH THE IMPROVING LOW LEVEL POLEWARD INFLOW AND UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. BEYOND 48H TO 60 HOURS , SYSTEM SHOULD RECURVE NORTHWESTWARDS UNDER INFLUENCE OF MID-LEVEL HIGHS LOCATED IN THE SOUTHERN MOZAMBICAN CHANNEL. IT SHOULD ALSO MORE CLEARLY INTENSIFY UNDER VERY FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS LINKED TO A VERY GOOD LOW LEVEL INFLOW AND AN EXCELLENT UPPER LEVEL POLEWARD OUTFLOW IN RELATIONSHIP WITH AN EXISTING WESTERLY SUBTROPICAL JET NEAR 25S.