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Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47


RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/14/20062007
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 14 (JAYA)

2.A POSITION 2007/03/31 AT 0000 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.9S / 64.9E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY FOUR DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.5/4.5 /D 1.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 970 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 65 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 100
50 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 060 NO: 060

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2007/03/31 12 UTC: 14.4S/62.9E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
24H: 2007/04/01 00 UTC: 14.9S/60.5E, MAX WIND=075KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
36H: 2007/04/01 12 UTC: 15.0S/57.8E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
48H: 2007/04/02 00 UTC: 15.0S/55.6E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
60H: 2007/04/02 12 UTC: 14.9S/53.2E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
72H: 2007/04/03 00 UTC: 14.0S/51.7E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T AND CI=4.5
IT IS A SMALL SIZE SYSTEM PRESENTING NOW AN EYE IN INFRARED IMAGERY.
SYSTEM KEEPS ON TRACKING GLOBALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS, ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE REBUILDING SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES BELT.
SYSTEM IS FORSEEN TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY IN A FIRST TIME LINKED TO THE IMPROVING LOW LEVEL POLEWARD INFLOW AND THEN MORE CLEARLY INTENSIFY UNDERGOING VERY FAVOURABLE CONDITIONS LINKED TO A VERY GOOD LOW LEVEL INFLOW AND AN EXCELLENT UPPER LEVEL POLEWARD OUTFLOW IN RELATIONSHIP WITH AN EXISTING WESTERLY SUBTROPICAL JET NEAR 25S.
BEYOND 60H TO 72 HOURS , SYSTEM SHOULD RECURVE NORTHWESTWARDS TOWARDS THE NORTHERN MALAGASY COASTLINE UNDER INFLUENCE OF MID-LEVEL HIGHS LOCATED IN THE SOUTHERN MOZAMBICAN CHANNEL.