Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 6/14/20062007 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 14 (JAYA) 2.A POSITION 2007/03/31 AT 0600 UTC : 14.2S / 63.7E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY THREE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.0/5.0 MOINS /D 1.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 955 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 85 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 120 SE: 170 SO: 170 NO: 120 50 KT NE: 070 SE: 070 SO: 070 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/03/31 18 UTC: 14.7S/61.6E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 24H: 2007/04/01 06 UTC: 15.1S/59.3E, MAX WIND=095KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 36H: 2007/04/01 18 UTC: 15.4S/56.8E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 48H: 2007/04/02 06 UTC: 15.4S/54.6E, MAX WIND=105KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 60H: 2007/04/02 18 UTC: 14.8S/52.5E, MAX WIND=110KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 72H: 2007/04/03 06 UTC: 14.3S/51.2E, MAX WIND=110KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T AND CI=5.0+ THE EIR ANALYSIS LEADS TO T5.5 BETWEEN 0200Z AND 0500Z, WILL VISIBLE ANALISYS IS LOWER AND DVORAK RULES LIMIT THE INTENSIFICATION, SO THE SYSTEM IS ANALYSED AT 5.0+ INTENSITY. IT IS A SMALL SIZE SYSTEM (ALMOST MIDGET), SHOWING A WARM AND DRY EYE WITH IMPROVING ORGANIZATION. IT IS RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING, NOW AT THE TRESHOLD AF INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE. ITS MINIMAL CENTRAL PRESSURE IS HIGHER THAN IT SHOULD BE FOR AN "NORMAL" SIZE SYSTEM OF EQUIVALENT INTENSITY. IT KEEPS ON TRACKING GLOBALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS, ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE REBUILDING SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES BELT. JAYA IS FORSEEN TO INTENSIFY DUE TO FAVORABLE CONDITIONS. IT SHOULD RECURVE NORTHWESTWARDS BEYOND THE NEXT 48 HOURS, TOWARDS THE NORTHERN MALAGASY COASTLINE UNDER INFLUENCE OF MID-LEVEL HIGHS LOCATED IN THE SOUTHERN MOZAMBICAN CHANNEL.