Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 7/14/20062007 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 14 (JAYA) 2.A POSITION 2007/03/31 AT 1200 UTC : 14.5S / 62.6E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY TWO DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.5/5.5 MOINS /D 2.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 950 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 90 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 120 SE: 170 SO: 170 NO: 120 50 KT NE: 070 SE: 070 SO: 070 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/04/01 00 UTC: 15.0S/60.2E, MAX WIND=095KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 24H: 2007/04/01 12 UTC: 15.5S/57.9E, MAX WIND=095KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 36H: 2007/04/02 00 UTC: 15.9S/55.6E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 48H: 2007/04/02 12 UTC: 15.7S/53.4E, MAX WIND=105KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 60H: 2007/04/03 00 UTC: 15.4S/52.1E, MAX WIND=110KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 72H: 2007/04/03 12 UTC: 15.1S/50.9E, MAX WIND=110KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T AND CI=5.5 THE EIR ANALYSIS LEADS TO T6.0, WILL VISIBLE ANALYSIS IS LOWER AND DVORAK RULES LIMIT THE INTENSIFICATION, SO THE SYSTEM IS ANALYSED AT 5.5 INTENSITY. IT IS A SMALL SIZE SYSTEM (ALMOST MIDGET), SHOWING A WELL DEFINED WARM AND DRY 20NM DIAMETER EYE. ITS MINIMAL CENTRAL PRESSURE IS HIGHER THAN IT SHOULD BE FOR AN "NORMAL" SIZE SYSTEM OF EQUIVALENT INTENSITY. IT KEEPS ON TRACKING REGULARY WESTSOUTHWESTWARDS, ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE REBUILDING SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES BELT. JAYA IS FORCASTED TO KEEP ON INTENSIFYING, DUE TO FAVORABLE CONDITIONS. IT SHOULD RECURVE NORTHWESTWARDS BEYOND THE NEXT 48 HOURS, TOWARDS THE NORTHERN MALAGASY COASTLINES, UNDER INFLUENCE OF MID-LEVEL HIGHS WICH SHOULD BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF MADAGASCAR.