Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 8/14/20062007 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 14 (JAYA) 2.A POSITION 2007/03/31 AT 1800 UTC : 14.7S / 61.5E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY ONE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 6.0/6.0 /D 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 930 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 100 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 120 SE: 250 SO: 200 NO: 100 50 KT NE: 070 SE: 070 SO: 070 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/04/01 06 UTC: 15.3S/59.1E, MAX WIND=105KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 24H: 2007/04/01 18 UTC: 15.6S/56.7E, MAX WIND=110KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 36H: 2007/04/02 06 UTC: 15.7S/54.2E, MAX WIND=110KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 48H: 2007/04/02 18 UTC: 15.5S/52.3E, MAX WIND=110KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 60H: 2007/04/03 06 UTC: 15.1S/50.6E, MAX WIND=110KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 72H: 2007/04/03 18 UTC: 14.1S/48.5E OVERLAND. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: IT IS A SMALL SIZE SYSTEM (ALMOST MIDGET), SHOWING A WELL DEFINED WARM AND DRY LESS THAN 20NM DIAMETER EYE. ITS MINIMAL CENTRAL PRESSURE IS HIGHER THAN IT SHOULD BE FOR AN "NORMAL" SIZE SYSTEM OF EQUIVALENT INTENSITY. IT KEEPS ON TRACKING REGULARY WESTSOUTHWESTWARDS, ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES BELT. JAYA IS FORCASTED TO KEEP ON INTENSIFYING, DUE TO FAVORABLE CONDITIONS. IT SHOULD RECURVE NORTHWESTWARDS BEYOND THE NEXT 48 HOURS, TOWARDS THE NORTHERN MALAGASY COASTLINES, UNDER INFLUENCE OF MID-LEVEL HIGHS WICH SHOULD BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF MADAGASCAR.