Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 10/14/20062007 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 14 (JAYA) 2.A POSITION 2007/04/01 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.9S / 59.2E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY NINE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.0/6.0 /W 1.0/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 934 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 100 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 150 SE: 270 SO: 220 NO: 150 50 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 060 NO: 060 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/04/01 18 UTC: 15.4S/57.0E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 24H: 2007/04/02 06 UTC: 15.4S/54.5E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 36H: 2007/04/02 18 UTC: 15.2S/52.2E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 48H: 2007/04/03 06 UTC: 15.0S/50.6E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 60H: 2007/04/03 18 UTC: 14.8S/49.5E, MAX WIND=060KT, OVERLAND. 72H: 2007/04/04 06 UTC: 14.6S/48.5E, MAX WIND=040KT, OVERLAND. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=5.0 ; CI=6.0- "JAYA" IS A SMALL SYSTEM, BOTH DEEP CONVECTION AND STRONG WINDS EXTENSIONS ARE LMIITED. THE STRONG WINDS EXTENSION IS LARGER IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO THE GRADIENT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE. DURING THE PAST HOURS, "JAYA" TRACKED REGULARLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS AND THE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES STARTING DISORGANZATION : IR IMAGERY SHOWING A COOLER UPPER LEVEL CENTRAL CORE, AND MICRO-WAVE IMAGERY REVEALING AN EROSION OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT (SSMI 0119Z, 0242Z, 0354Z, WINDSAT 0155Z). DUE TO ITS SMALL SIZE, "JAYA" STRUCTURE AND INTENSITY MAY FLUCTUATE VERY RAPIDLY ; IT IS ADVISABLE TO WAIT FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE CONFIRMING THE WEAKENING TENDENCY. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING MAINLY WESTWARDS, TOWARDS THE NORTH OF MADAGASCAR.