Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 11/14/20062007 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 14 (JAYA) 2.A POSITION 2007/04/01 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.1S / 57.9E (FIFTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SEVEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.5/5.5 /W 1.5/18 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 945 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 85 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 150 SE: 270 SO: 220 NO: 150 50 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 060 NO: 060 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/04/02 00 UTC: 15.4S/55.6E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2007/04/02 12 UTC: 15.6S/53.7E, MAX WIND=075KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2007/04/03 00 UTC: 15.6S/51.8E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2007/04/03 12 UTC: 15.0S/50.2E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2007/04/04 00 UTC: 14.5S/49.2E, MAX WIND=040KT, OVERLAND. 72H: 2007/04/04 12 UTC: 14.6S/48.2E, MAX WIND=030KT, OVERLAND. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=4.5+ ; CI=5.5- "JAYA" IS A SMALL SYSTEM, BOTH DEEP CONVECTION AND STRONG WINDS EXTENSIONS ARE LIMITED. DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS, THE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONFIRMS A WEAKENING TENDENCY OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE : THE WARM CORE IS NOT STABILIZED AND IS COOLER THAN YESTERDAY, AND MICRO-WAVE IMAGERY REVEALS AN EROSION OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. THIS WEAKENING IS DUE TO A MID-TROPOSPHERIC DRY AIR INTRUSION AND TO A SLIGHT INCREASE OF THE NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DUE TO ITS SMALL SIZE, "JAYA" INTENSITY MAY STILL FLUCTUATE VERY RAPIDLY. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING MAINLY WESTWARDS, TOWARDS THE NORTH OF MADAGASCAR, WITH A WEAKENING TENDENCY.