Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 12/14/20062007 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 14 (JAYA) 2.A POSITION 2007/04/01 AT 1800 UTC : 15.2S / 56.8E (FIFTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SIX DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.5/5.5 MOINS /D 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 945 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 85 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 150 SE: 270 SO: 220 NO: 150 50 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 060 NO: 060 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/04/02 06 UTC: 15.4S/54.6E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 24H: 2007/04/02 18 UTC: 15.5S/52.9E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 36H: 2007/04/03 06 UTC: 15.2S/51.1E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2007/04/03 18 UTC: 14.7S/49.6E OVERLAND. 60H: 2007/04/04 06 UTC: 14.5S/48.1E OVERLAND. 72H: 2007/04/04 18 UTC: 14.4S/46.7E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=5.5- "JAYA" IS A SMALL SYSTEM, BOTH DEEP CONVECTION AND STRONG WINDS EXTENSIONS ARE LIMITED. THE WEAKENING STARTED LAST NIGHT HAS STOPPED DURING LAST HOURS. NEVERTHELESS, DUE TO ITS SMALL SIZE, "JAYA" INTENSITY MAY STILL FLUCTUATE VERY RAPIDLY. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING MAINLY WESTWARDS, TOWARDS THE NORTH OF MADAGASCAR. AT MEDIUM RANGE, NUMERICAL MODELS ARE VERY DIFFERENT, SO THE FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN BEYOND THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SOME (GFDN, NOGAPS) MAKE IT TRACK SOUTHWARDS AND DISSIPATE OVERLAND AFTER ITS LANDFALL, OTHERS (UKMO, ECMWF, ARPEGE-TROPIQUES) MAKE IT CROSS THE NORTH OF MADAGASCAR.