Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
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RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 13/14/20062007 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 14 (JAYA) 2.A POSITION 2007/04/02 AT 0000 UTC : 15.1S / 55.7E (FIFTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FIVE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.5/5.5 /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 950 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 85 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 150 SE: 270 SO: 220 NO: 150 50 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 060 NO: 060 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/04/02 12 UTC: 15.0S/53.5E, MAX WIND=085KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2007/04/03 00 UTC: 14.8S/51.6E, MAX WIND=085KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2007/04/03 12 UTC: 14.6S/49.4E OVERLAND. 48H: 2007/04/04 00 UTC: 14.8S/47.4E OVERLAND. 60H: 2007/04/04 12 UTC: 15.0S/45.4E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 72H: 2007/04/05 00 UTC: 15.1S/43.9E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=5.5- THE SMALL EYE IS REBUILDING AND WARMING. "JAYA" REMAINS A SMALL SYSTEM, BOTH DEEP CONVECTION AND STRONG WINDS EXTENSIONS ARE LIMITED. DUE TO ITS SMALL SIZE, ITS INTENSITY MAY STILL FLUCTUATE VERY RAPIDLY. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING MAINLY WESTWARDS, TOWARDS THE NORTH OF MADAGASCAR. THE FORECASTED TRACK IS A CONSENSUS BETWEEN TWO DIFFERENTS SCENARIOS OF THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODELS : THE FIRST ONE MAKES IT TRACK WESTNORTHWESTWARDS AND CROSS RAPIDLY THE NORTH OF MADAGASCAR (ECMWF, UKMO, AVNO), THE SECOND ONE MAKES IT TRACK DOWN SOUTHWESTWARDS AFTER ITS LANDFALL, AND THEN DISSIPATES OVERLAND (NOGAPS, GFDN).