Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 14/14/20062007 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 14 (JAYA) 2.A POSITION 2007/04/02 AT 0600 UTC : 15.2S / 54.7E (FIFTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FOUR DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.0/5.5 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 950 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 85 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 150 SE: 300 SO: 220 NO: 150 50 KT NE: 060 SE: 080 SO: 080 NO: 060 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/04/02 18 UTC: 15.1S/53.0E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2007/04/03 06 UTC: 14.9S/50.8E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2007/04/03 18 UTC: 14.7S/48.5E OVERLAND. 48H: 2007/04/04 06 UTC: 15.0S/46.5E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 60H: 2007/04/04 18 UTC: 15.4S/44.5E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 72H: 2007/04/05 06 UTC: 15.5S/43.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=5.0- CI=5.5- THE SMALL EYE HAS BECOME WELL DEFINED - AND COOLER - OVER THE LAST HOURS ON THE IR IMAGERY. THE EYE REMAINS WELL DEFINED ON THE MW IMAGERY WHERE THE DEEP CONVECTION APPEARS ERODED IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING MAINLY WESTWARDS, TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST OF MADAGASCAR, AND MAKE A LANDFALL IN ANTALAHA'S AREA IN THE NEXT 24 TO 30 HOURS. THE FORECASTED TRACK IS A CONSENSUS BETWEEN TWO DIFFERENT SCENARII OF THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODELS: THE FIRST ONE CROSSES QUICKLY THE NORTH OF MADAGASCAR (ECMWF, UKMO) AND FOLLOWS THE SYSTEM OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, THE SECOND ONE TRACKS SOUTHWESTWARDS AFTER THE LANDFALL, AND THEN DISSIPATES OVERLAND (NOGAPS, GFDN).