Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
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RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 15/14/20062007 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 14 (JAYA) 2.A POSITION 2007/04/02 AT 1200 UTC : 15.3S / 53.6E (FIFTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.0/5.5 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 950 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 85 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 150 SE: 300 SO: 220 NO: 150 50 KT NE: 060 SE: 080 SO: 080 NO: 060 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/04/03 00 UTC: 15.3S/51.9E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2007/04/03 12 UTC: 15.3S/49.5E, MAX WIND=035KT, OVERLAND. 36H: 2007/04/04 00 UTC: 15.4S/47.6E, MAX WIND=020KT, OVERLAND. 48H: 2007/04/04 12 UTC: 15.8S/45.6E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 60H: 2007/04/05 00 UTC: 16.5S/43.7E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 72H: 2007/04/05 12 UTC: 17.0S/42.0E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=5.0+ CI=5.5- THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME SYMETRICAL ON THE VISIBLE IMAGERY, BUT EYE ASPECT KEEPS ON FLUCTUATING. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING MAINLY WESTWARDS, TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST OF MADAGASCAR, AND MAKE A LANDFALL IN ANTALAHA'S AREA IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ENVIRONMENT IS FAVOURABLE POLEWARDS WITH GOOD OUTFLOW AND WELL ESTABLISHED TRADE WINDS BUT UNFAVOURABLE EQUATORWARDS WHERE THERE IS NO ESTABLISHED MONSOON FLOW AND NO OUTFLOW BUT A SLIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDSHEAR. THE FORECASTED TRACK IS A CONSENSUS BETWEEN TWO SCENARII OF THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODELS: THE FIRST ONE CROSSES QUICKLY THE NORTH OF MADAGASCAR (ECMWF, UKMO, ARPEGE) AND FOLLOWS THE SYSTEM OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, THE SECOND ONE TRACKS SOUTHWESTWARDS AFTER THE LANDFALL, AND THEN DISSIPATES OVERLAND (NOGAPS, GFDN).