Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 16/14/20062007 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 14 (JAYA) 2.A POSITION 2007/04/02 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.2S / 52.7E (FIFTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY TWO DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.5/5.5 /D 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 945 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 90 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SO: 220 NO: 150 50 KT NE: 060 SE: 080 SO: 080 NO: 060 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 450 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/04/03 06 UTC: 15.4S/50.8E, MAX WIND=085KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2007/04/03 18 UTC: 15.5S/48.6E, MAX WIND=040KT, OVERLAND. 36H: 2007/04/04 06 UTC: 15.7S/46.6E, MAX WIND=020KT, OVERLAND. 48H: 2007/04/04 18 UTC: 16.2S/44.8E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 60H: 2007/04/05 06 UTC: 16.8S/43.4E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 72H: 2007/04/05 18 UTC: 17.6S/42.5E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=5.5- ; CI=5.5 THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AROUND "JAYA" CONSOLIDATED SLIGHTLY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT THE WARM CORE STRUCTURE REMAINS FLUCTUATING. THE ENVIRONMENT IS NEUTRAL NEAR "JAYA", THE INTENSITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE MODIFIED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. "JAYA" KEEPS ON TRACKING WESTWARDS TOWARDS THE MALGASY COASTLINE. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN THE VICINITY OF ANTALAHA TOMORROW MORNING. HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS ARE FORSEEN OVER NORTHEASTERN MADAGASCAR, BETWEEN SAINTE MARIE AND FANAMBANA, FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THE REMNANTS OF "JAYA" MAY TRACK OVER WATER AGAIN IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL AFTER TAU 48, BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR AN INTENSIFICATION WOULD BE POOR.