Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
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RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 17/14/20062007 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 14 (JAYA) 2.A POSITION 2007/04/03 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.1S / 51.5E (FIFTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY ONE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.0/5.5 /W 0.5/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 950 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 85 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SO: 220 NO: 150 50 KT NE: 060 SE: 080 SO: 080 NO: 060 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 450 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/04/03 12 UTC: 15.1S/49.5E, MAX WIND=050KT, OVERLAND. 24H: 2007/04/04 00 UTC: 15.3S/48.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, OVERLAND. 36H: 2007/04/04 12 UTC: 15.6S/46.4E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 48H: 2007/04/05 00 UTC: 16.0S/44.8E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 60H: 2007/04/05 12 UTC: 16.7S/43.4E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 72H: 2007/04/06 00 UTC: 17.4S/42.6E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=5.0- ; CI=5.5- DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS, THE WARM CORE STRUCTURE HAS BEEN DISORGANIZED AND THE CONVECTION HAS BEEN ERODED IN THE NORTHEASTERN SECTOR (CF. NOAA18 2159Z) DUE TO A MID TROPOSPHERIC DRY AIR INTRUSION AND TO A SLIGHT INCREASE OF THE NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ; "JAYA" CURRENTLY SHOWS A SLIGHT WEAKENING TENDENCY. "JAYA" KEEPS ON TRACKING WESTWARDS TOWARDS THE MALGASY COASTLINE. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN THE VICINITY OF ANTALAHA WITHIN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS ARE FORSEEN OVER NORTHEASTERN MADAGASCAR, BETWEEN SAINTE MARIE AND FANAMBANA, DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE REMNANTS OF "JAYA" MAY TRACK OVER WATER AGAIN IN THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL AFTER TAU 48, BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR AN INTENSIFICATION WOULD BE POOR.