Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 18/14/20062007 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 14 (JAYA) 2.A POSITION 2007/04/03 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.4S / 50.8E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.0/5.0 /W 1.0/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 960 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 75 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SO: 220 NO: 150 50 KT NE: 050 SE: 070 SO: 070 NO: 050 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/04/03 18 UTC: 14.2S/48.2E OVERLAND. 24H: 2007/04/04 06 UTC: 14.5S/45.7E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2007/04/04 18 UTC: 14.6S/43.8E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2007/04/05 06 UTC: 15.4S/41.7E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2007/04/05 18 UTC: 16.4S/40.7E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2007/04/06 06 UTC: 17.5S/40.1E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=4.0 ; CI=5.0- LINKED TO A MID TROPOSPHERIC DRY AIR INTRUSION AND TO A SLIGHT INCREASE OF THE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (CF TRMM AT 0007UTC), "JAYA" HAS CLEARLY DISORGANIZED. UNDERGOING A MID-LEVEL HIGHS CELL ON THE MOZAMBICAN CHANNEL (CF LEVEL 500HPA), "JAYA" HAS RECURVED WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS. THE WEAKENING IS RATHER QUICK AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AT ABOUT 0900UTC IN THE VICINITY OF SAMBAVA (MALAGASY) AT THE MINIMAL STAGE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE. HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS ARE FORSEEN BETWEEN SAINTE MARIE AND FANAMBANA DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. "JAYA" SHOULD COME BACK OVER SEA AT TROPICAL DEPRESSION STAGE WITHIN THE NEXT NIGHT SOUTH OF NOSY-BE. IN A FIRST TIME, THE POTENTIAL FOR AN INTENSIFICATION WOULD BE POOR BUT IT SHOULD UNDERGOING BETTER ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WITHIN 48 HOURS IN THE MOZAMBICAN CHANNEL.