Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 19/14/20062007 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 14 (JAYA) 2.A POSITION 2007/04/03 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.4S / 49.8E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY NINE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : /W 1.0/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 975 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 65 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SO: 080 NO: 080 50 KT NE: 050 SE: 050 SO: 050 NO: 050 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/04/04 00 UTC: 14.3S/47.2E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2007/04/04 12 UTC: 14.8S/44.9E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2007/04/05 00 UTC: 15.2S/42.9E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2007/04/05 12 UTC: 15.9S/41.5E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2007/04/06 00 UTC: 16.9S/40.8E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2007/04/06 12 UTC: 18.1S/40.3E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: "JAYA" HAS MADE ITS LANDFALL ABOUT 25 KM SOUTH OF SAMBAVA (MALAGASY) FEW AFTER 0800UTC AT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE. DESPITE METEOSAT7 INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS A DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION , MICROWAVE SSMIS F16 AT 0409UTC SHOWS A 50 KM DIAMETER WELL DEFINED EYEWALL AROUND A WELL ORGANIZED LLCC. WIND GUSTS HAVE PROBABLY REACHED 180 TO 200 KM/H ON ITS FRONT AND IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE DOWN TO ANTALAHA. IN THE NORTHERN ONE, WESTERLIES (COMING FROM LAND) HAVE CERTAINLY BEEN LESS. SYSTEM KEEPS ON TRACKING GLOBALLY WESTWARDS TO COME BACK OVER SEA NEXT NIGHT BEFORE 0000UTC SOMEWHERE IN THE SOUTH OF NOSY-BE. OVERLAND AND CROSSING HIGH MOUNTAINS (MORE THAN 2000M FOR THE HIGHER), "JAYA" WILL QUICKLY DISORGANIZED AND COMING OVER SEA AT A WEAK STAGE. WINDS WOULD RAPIDLY WEAKEN BUT HEAVY RAIN WILL CONCERN ALL THE NORTHERN HALF OF MALAGASY (NORTH OF 20S). POTENTIAL FOR RE-INTENSIFICATION IS WEAK IN A FIRST TIME OVER THE MOZAMBICAN CHANNEL BUT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE WITHIN 48 HOURS.