Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 20/14/20062007 1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 14 (EX-JAYA) 2.A POSITION 2007/04/03 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.9S / 47.8E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY SEVEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : / 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/04/04 06 UTC: 15.5S/45.5E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2007/04/04 18 UTC: 16.1S/43.4E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 36H: 2007/04/05 06 UTC: 16.8S/41.5E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 48H: 2007/04/05 18 UTC: 17.7S/40.5E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2007/04/06 06 UTC: 19.0S/40.3E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2007/04/06 18 UTC: 20.0S/40.5E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: JAYA'S CENTRE IS DIFFICULT TO PRECISELY LOCATE AS THE SYSTEM HAS RATHER DISORGANIZED OVERLAND. HOWEVER, THANKS TO MSG ANIMATED IMAGERY, IT SEEMS THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO COME BACK OVER WATER VERY SOON, IN THE VICINITY OF ANALALAVA. OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, THE SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY REINTENSIFY WITHIN FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT, ESPECIALLY BEYOND 24 HOURS.