Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 21/14/20062007 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 14 (EX-JAYA) 2.A POSITION 2007/04/04 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.0S / 47.0E (FIFTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY SEVEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/1.5 / 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1004 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 20 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/04/04 12 UTC: 15.5S/44.8E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2007/04/05 00 UTC: 16.3S/42.9E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 36H: 2007/04/05 12 UTC: 17.4S/41.1E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 48H: 2007/04/06 00 UTC: 18.4S/40.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2007/04/06 12 UTC: 19.4S/39.6E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2007/04/07 00 UTC: 20.3S/39.9E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE SYSTEM SEEMS TO BE BACK OVER WATER. THE CENTRE IS DIFFICULT TO PRECISELY LOCATE AS THE SYSTEM IS FULLY DISORGANIZED. RESIDUAL CONVECTION GENERATES HOWEVER RAINFALL OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF MADAGASCAR, THAT CAN BE HEAVY ALONG THE EASTERN COAST. OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE ABLE TO GRADUALLY REINTENSIFY WITHIN FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT, ESPECIALLY BEYOND 24 HOURS.