Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 22/14/20062007 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 14 (EX-JAYA) 2.A POSITION 2007/04/04 AT 0600 UTC : 12.8S / 45.0E (TWELVE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY FIVE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/1.5 /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1006 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 20 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 550 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/04/04 18 UTC: 13.3S/42.9E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2007/04/05 06 UTC: 14.4S/41.3E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 36H: 2007/04/05 18 UTC: 15.5S/39.9E OVERLAND. 48H: 2007/04/06 06 UTC: 16.4S/38.4E OVERLAND. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE SYSTEM IS BACK OVER WATER, BUT IT IS FULLY DISORGANIZED AND UNDERGOING A MODERATE WESTWARDS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE CENTRE HAS BEEN RELOCATED NORTHWARDS IN THE VICINITY OF MAYOTTE. THIS IS THE LAST WARNING ABOUT THIS SYSTEM UNLESS REINTENSIFICATION. FOR FURTHER IMFORMATIONS SEE BULLETIN AWIO20 FMEE.