Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 23/14/20062007 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 14 (EX-JAYA) 2.A POSITION 2007/04/05 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.5S / 41.8E (FIFTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY ONE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/1.5 /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1006 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 20 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 200 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/04/06 00 UTC: 16.3S/40.6E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2007/04/06 12 UTC: 17.0S/39.6E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 36H: 2007/04/07 00 UTC: 17.6S/38.8E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 48H: 2007/04/07 12 UTC: 18.1S/38.2E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 60H: 2007/04/08 00 UTC: 18.6S/37.7E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 72H: 2007/04/08 12 UTC: 19.0S/37.3E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: "EX-JAYA" IS GETTING CLOSE TO THE MOZAMBICAN COASTLINE. THE NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR LIMITS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN INTENSIFICATION BUT DUE TO THE IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS RATHER STRONG OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL BETWEEN 12S AND 20S, AND ALSO OVER NAMPULA AND ZAMBEZIA PROVINCES. "EX-JAYA" IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS SLOWLY AND TO SKIRT THE MOZAMBICAN COASTLINE, MAINTAINING HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THESE AREAS. THE INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS BUT "EX-JAYA" IS CLOSELY MONITORED.