Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

*************** CORRECTIVE ************** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 24/14/20062007 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 14 (EX-JAYA) 2.A POSITION 2007/04/07 AT 1200 UTC : 18.3S / 40.0E (EIGHTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/1.5 / 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1008 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 20 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 850 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/04/08 00 UTC: 18.4S/40.4E, MAX WIND=020KT , TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2007/04/08 12 UTC: 18.5S/41.0E, MAX WIND=020KT , TROP. DISTURBANCE. 36H: 2007/04/09 00 UTC: 18.8S/41.6E, MAX WIND=020KT , TROP. DISTURBANCE. 48H: 2007/04/09 12 UTC: 19.5S/41.9E, MAX WIND=020KT , TROP. DISTURBANCE. 60H: 2007/04/10 00 UTC: 20.5S/41.7E, MAX WIND=020KT , TROP. DISTURBANCE. 72H: 2007/04/10 12 UTC: 21.7S/41.3E, MAX WIND=020KT , TROP. DISTURBANCE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: LLCC CENTRE IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED WEST OF THE REBUILDING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THE SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS TOWARDS AN AREA WITH STRONG EASTERLY WINDSHEAR DEFINITLY UNFAVOURABLE FOR A REINTENSIFICATION. SYSTEM INTENSITY DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS BUT EX-JAYA REMAINS CLOSELY MONITORED.