Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 1/15/20062007 1.A SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION 15 2.A POSITION 2007/04/11 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 29.6S / 39.6E (TWENTY NINE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY NINE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : / 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 45 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 220 SE: 440 SO: 270 NO: 160 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/04/12 00 UTC: 32.3S/41.3E, MAX WIND=045KT, SUBTROPICAL. 24H: 2007/04/12 12 UTC: 35.5S/43.7E, MAX WIND=040KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 36H: 2007/04/13 00 UTC: 38.9S/47.9E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 48H: 2007/04/13 12 UTC: 42.3S/53.8E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: TAKING BENEFIT OF A SLIGHT DECREASE OF THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, THE SYSTEM IS NOW ORGANIZED AS A SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION. AS DEPICTED BY THE QUIKSCAT DATA, THE LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION IS NOT SYMMETRICAL AND THE STRONG WINDS EXTENSION IS RATHER WIDE, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS WEAK (SST REACHES HARDLY 25 DEGREES) AND SHOWS AN VERY ASYMMETRICAL PATTERN. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING SOUTHWARDS AND THEN SOUTHEASTWARDS, AND TO FOLLOW SHORTLY AN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION DUE TO TYE INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. NEXT WARNING : APRIL 12 AT 0000Z.