Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 2/1/20072008 1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 1 2.A POSITION 2007/10/12 AT 1200 UTC : 10.6S / 60.2E (TEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1005 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/10/13 00 UTC: 11.2S/58.6E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2007/10/13 12 UTC: 11.5S/56.9E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: CI=T=2.0- THIS SYSTEM IS POORLY ORGANIZED AND HAS A WEAK POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION. VISIBLE IMAGERY METEOSAT BETWEEN 0700Z AND 0900Z CLEARLY SHOW TWO LOWS, VERY CLOSE TO EACH OTHER, TURNING ONE AROUND THE OTHER, EXPOSED ON THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF DEEP CONVECTION. THAT CONFIRMS THE WEAK INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM, DESPITE A DEEP CONVECTION WICH CAN APPEAR WELL ORGANIZED ON SOME IMAGES. THE CENTER INDICATED IN THIS BULLETIN IS THE GRAVITY CENTER OF THOSE TWO LOWS, WICH IS NOT A REAL LOW, BUT THE MOST SIGNIFICANT TO FOLLOW THE GLOBAL TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. THIS ONE IS TRACKING TOWARDS SST BELOW 26.5°c, WICH SHOULD INHIBIT ITS INTENSIFICATION. ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MODERATLY GOOD (GOOD LOWLEVEL INFLOW AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ONLY IN THE POLAR PART). THE GLOBAL SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK MORE WESTSOUTHWESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURES BUILDING TO THE SOUTH, WITHOUT DEEPENING SIGNIFICANTLY. AT THIS INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM DOESN'T JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.