Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 4/1/20072008 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 1 2.A POSITION 2007/10/13 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.9S / 57.5E (TEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SEVEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1005 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/10/13 18 UTC: 11.2S/55.1E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2007/10/14 06 UTC: 10.3S/52.8E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 36H: 2007/10/14 18 UTC: 09.2S/50.8E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 48H: 2007/10/15 06 UTC: 08.9S/49.8E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 60H: 2007/10/15 18 UTC: 08.3S/48.1E, MAX WIND=020KT, DISSIPATING. 72H: 2007/10/16 06 UTC: 07.9S/46.3E, MAX WIND=015KT, DISSIPATING. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: CI=T=2.0 SYSTEM REMAINS POOR ORGANIZED AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS CLEARLY WEAKENED WITHIN THE RECENT PAST HOURS. SEVERAL CENTERS MAY POSSIBLE, THE MENTIONNED ONE IS SUPPOSED TO BE THE MAIN. IT IS LOCATED ON THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF DEEP CONVECTION WICH HAS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS IN HIGH LEVEL (GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW), BUT NEUTRAL TO UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IN LOW LEVEL : GOOD LOW LEVEL TRADEWINDS INFLOWS, BUT NO EQUATORWARDS WIND INFLOW, AND ENERGETIC CONDITIONS LIMITATED BECAUSE THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING OVER SEAS WITH SST OF 26.5°c, WICH IS JUST THE MINIMAL THRESHOLD FOR DEVELOPMENT OR PERSISTENCE OF A TROPICAL LOW. IT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING WESTSOUTHWESTWARDS WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES THEN WESTNORTHWESTWARDS, WITHOUT INTENSIFYING SIGNIFICANTLY. IT SHOULD COME THE CLOSEST TO AGALEGA (WHERE PRESSURES REMAIN RATHER HIGH DESPITE THE APPROACH OF THE LOW)DURING THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS INTENSITY, THE SYSTEM DOESN'T JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.