Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/1/20072008 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 1 2.A POSITION 2007/10/13 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.2S / 56.4E (ELEVEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SIX DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/2.0 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1005 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/10/14 00 UTC: 10.5S/54.2E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2007/10/14 12 UTC: 09.5S/52.0E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 36H: 2007/10/15 00 UTC: 09.3S/50.3E, MAX WIND=020KT, DISSIPATING. 48H: 2007/10/15 12 UTC: 08.3S/48.0E, MAX WIND=020KT, DISSIPATING. 60H: 2007/10/16 00 UTC: 06.9S/45.8E DISSIPATING. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=1.5 AND CI=2.0 UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS RATHER FAVORABLE (GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND WEAK VERTICAL WINDSHEAR), BUT LINKED TO A LACK OF EQUATORWARD LOW LEVEL INFLOW AND LIMITATED ENERGETIC CONDITIONS (SST AROUND 26.0/26.5 C, CF BUOY 56556 / 26.3 C AT 0820UTC) , DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS CLEARLY WEAKENED SINCE THE END OF THE NIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS NOW TOTALLY EXPOSED. MEASURED MSLP AT 0900UTC AT AGALEGA 1008.1HPA (WHEN THE CENTER WAS CLOSEST TO AGALAGA AT ABOUT 65KM IN ITS SOUTH) CONFIRMS 1005 HPA NEAR THE CENTER ESTIMATED BY OUR RSMC. LLCC IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE WESTNORTHWESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATING. LAST WARNING RELATED TO THIS SYSTEM UNLESS REINTENSIFICATION BUT IT REMAINS CLOSELY MONITORED (MARINE BULLETIN FQIO25 FMEE AND BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AWIO20 FMEE)