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Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00 Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48 Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

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RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 1/2/20072008
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2 (ARIEL EX-LEE)

2.A POSITION 2007/11/15 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.5S / 89.6E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY NINE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.5/3.5 /D 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 984 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 50 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 110 SE: 400 SO: 400 NO: 080
50 KT NE: 025 SE: 025 SO: 025 NO: 025

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2007/11/16 00 UTC: 11.7S/88.3E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
24H: 2007/11/16 12 UTC: 11.8S/86.9E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
36H: 2007/11/17 00 UTC: 11.9S/85.8E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
48H: 2007/11/17 12 UTC: 12.0S/85.0E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
60H: 2007/11/18 00 UTC: 12.2S/84.4E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
72H: 2007/11/18 12 UTC: 12.8S/84.1E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T AND CI = 3.5.
SEVERE TROPICAL STROM ARIEL EX-LEE HAS CROSSED THE 90E FROM AUSTRALIAN RESPONSABILITY AREA TO RSMC LA REUNION'S ONE AROUND 0800 UTC TODAY AND HAS BEEN RENAMED IN CONSEQUENCE.
SYSTEM HAS SHOWED SLIGHT SIGNS OF NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR (BEGINNING CIRRUS ARC) DUE TO HIGH LEVEL WINDS SOUTH OF 15S.
TRMM 0407UTC CONFIRMS IT AND SHOWS AN EYE FEATURE PATTERN IN 85GHZ SLIGHTLY DEPHASED WITH THE LLCC IN 37GHZ.
LAST METEOSAT7 SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS HOWEVER A NEW BURST OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY NEAR THE CENTER.
SYSTEM KEEPS ON TRACKIN SOUTHWESTWARDS BUT IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE WESTWARDS AT SHORT RANGE.
POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION REMAINS LIMITED DUE TO LESS FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WITH A NARROW WINDOW OF WEAK VERTICAL WINDSHEAR BETWEEN 5S AND 13/14S.