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Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00 Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48 Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

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RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 4/2/20072008
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2 (ARIEL EX-LEE)

2.A POSITION 2007/11/16 AT 0600 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.6S / 88.4E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY EIGHT DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.5/3.5 /S
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 980 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 50 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 110 SE: 250 SO: 250 NO: 110
50 KT NE: 025 SE: 025 SO: 025 NO: 025

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2007/11/16 18 UTC: 11.8S/87.3E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
24H: 2007/11/17 06 UTC: 11.9S/86.2E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
36H: 2007/11/17 18 UTC: 12.2S/85.5E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
48H: 2007/11/18 06 UTC: 12.7S/84.8E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
60H: 2007/11/18 18 UTC: 13.1S/84.4E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM.
72H: 2007/11/19 06 UTC: 13.2S/83.8E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T AND CI = 3.5+

CENTER FIX IS BASED ON 0311Z TRMM SWATH. ALTHOUGHT SLIGHT INPROVMENT OF THE OVERALL CLOUD CONFIGURATION OVER THE LAST HOURS, MICROWAVE DATA ARE ALWAYS DISPLAYING SOME TILT OF THE LLCC AND THE CONFIGURATION HAS NOT REALLY IMPROVED SINCE YESTERDAY.

SYSTEM WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO HIGH LEVEL WINDS SOUTH OF 15S SO ONLY SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST.

ARIEL SHOULD BE STEERED WESTWARDS BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTHWARDS DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS, BEFORE SLOWING DOWN AND TURN MORE SOUTHWESTWARDS DUE TO A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. SOME WEAKNING IS POSSIBLE AT THIS TIME DUE TO LOW OCEAN HEAT CONTAIN.