Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
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RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/2/20072008 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2 (ARIEL EX-LEE) 2.A POSITION 2007/11/16 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.6S / 87.8E (ELEVEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY SEVEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.5 /W 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 984 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 50 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 110 SE: 250 SO: 250 NO: 110 50 KT NE: 025 SE: 025 SO: 025 NO: 025 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/11/17 00 UTC: 11.7S/86.5E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2007/11/17 12 UTC: 11.9S/85.7E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2007/11/18 00 UTC: 12.4S/85.2E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2007/11/18 12 UTC: 12.6S/84.7E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2007/11/19 00 UTC: 12.8S/84.2E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2007/11/19 12 UTC: 12.9S/83.4E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=3.0 CI = 3.5 LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOW AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CENTER NORTHWEST OF THE MAIN CONVECTION SHOWING THAT ARIEL EX-LEE IS SUFFERING FROM NORTHNORTHWESTERLY SHEAR. T NUMBER HAS BEEN LOWERED ACCORDINGLY. TRACK HAS BEEN DUE WEST DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE BIT WESTWARDS. AT DAY 2, STEERING FLUX MAY TAKE A MORE SOUTHWARDS COMPONENT. AT DAY 3, A LITTLE STRONGER RIDGE SHOULD TAKE THE TRACK BACK TO THE WEST. THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE AT THIS RANGE AS SOME MODEL DEVELOPS A LOW NEAR THE CHAGOS AND INTERACT IT WITH ARIEL EX-LEE. AT THIS TIME THIS SCENARIO SEEMS UNREALISTIC ... THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO HIGH LEVEL STRONG WINDS SOUTH OF 15S BUT MOST GLOBAL MODEL LESSEN THE SHEAR ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK AFTER DAY 1. FOR THIS ADVISORY, FORECAST INTENSITY IS LOWERED AND KEPT TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS.