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Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00 Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48 Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

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RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 8/2/20072008
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2 (EX-ARIEL)

2.A POSITION 2007/11/17 AT 0600 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.6S / 87.5E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY SEVEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 1.0/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 997 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: SE: 220 SO: 200 NO:

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 650 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2007/11/17 18 UTC: 12.0S/87.1E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
24H: 2007/11/18 06 UTC: 12.3S/86.6E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
36H: 2007/11/18 18 UTC: 12.6S/86.3E, MAX WIND=025KT, FILLING UP.
48H: 2007/11/19 06 UTC: 12.8S/85.7E, MAX WIND=025KT, FILLING UP.
60H: 2007/11/19 18 UTC: 12.7S/85.0E, MAX WIND=025KT, FILLING UP.
72H: 2007/11/20 06 UTC: 12.4S/84.0E, MAX WIND=020KT, DISSIPATING.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=2.0 AND CI=2.5
ARIEL IS QUASI-STATIONNARY SINCE 1800UTC AND THE CENTER HAS BEEN RELOCATED EASTWARDS THIS MORNING THANKS TO NEW AVAILABLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.
SYSTEM KEEPS ON WEAKENING AND REINTENSIFICATION SEEMS TO BE UNLIKELY AT THIS STAGE..
IT SHOULD CONTINU TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS (ERRATIC MOTION IS POSSIBLE) BEFORE ACCELERATING A LITTLE BIT WESTWARDS AS IT DISSIPATE AS A REMNANT LOW.