Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 9/2/20072008 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2 (EX-ARIEL) 2.A POSITION 2007/11/17 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.8S / 87.0E (ELEVEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY SEVEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: SE: 220 SO: 200 NO: 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/11/18 00 UTC: 12.0S/85.8E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2007/11/18 12 UTC: 12.1S/84.5E, MAX WIND=025KT, FILLING UP. 36H: 2007/11/19 00 UTC: 11.5S/82.7E, MAX WIND=020KT, FILLING UP. 48H: 2007/11/19 12 UTC: 11.0S/80.8E, MAX WIND=020KT, DISSIPATING. 60H: 2007/11/20 00 UTC: 10.6S/79.0E, MAX WIND=020KT, DISSIPATING. 72H: 2007/11/20 12 UTC: DISSIPATED. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.0 AND CI=2.5- SATELLITE ANIMATION SHOW THAT"EX ARIEL" HAS BEGUN A WESTSOUTHWESTWARDS TRACK. CENTER REMAINS ILL-DEFINED AND DIFFICULT TO LOCALIZE.INTENSITY REMAINS AT 30 KT BUT FOR SURE IT IS ON A WEAKENING TREND ... DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM NEAR THE CHAGOS SEEMS TO INHIBIT RE-DEVELOPMENT OF "EX ARIEL". AS THE SYSTEM REMAINS POORLY ORGANISED, IT WILL BE STEERED BY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS BEFORE DISSIPATING IN THE CIRCULATION OF THE SYSTEM NEAR THE CHAGOS. ACCORDINGLY PRESENT GUIDANCE IS FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE.